As a new COVID variant gains ground, the story of new COVID variant cases by US state is becoming increasingly important. This summer, several states are reporting higher case numbers due to emerging strains, and the spread is showing no signs of slowing. Here’s an in-depth look at which states are seeing the most cases, what is driving the increase, and what it means for daily life.
What’s Driving the Rise
Summer 2025 has brought a new wave of COVID infections linked to two main variants: XFG, also called Stratus, and NB.1.8.1, known as Nimbus. Stratus was first detected in January 2025 and began spreading more quickly by late June. Nimbus has taken an even stronger hold, now making up a large share of recent infections across the United States.
Both variants are thought to be more transmissible than earlier strains. While there is no strong evidence that they cause more severe illness, their ability to spread quickly has led to higher infection rates in many regions. Seasonal patterns, increased gatherings, and changes in vaccine recommendations are all contributing to the uptick.
States With the Most Cases
According to nationwide monitoring, the highest levels of COVID activity are being reported on the West Coast and in parts of the Mountain West. California, Alaska, Colorado, Nevada, and Utah are among the states showing the most significant increases.
Wastewater testing, which can reveal rising infection levels before cases are widely reported, has confirmed sharp increases in these states. Louisiana and parts of the South are also reporting very high viral detection levels.
California’s situation is notable. Test positivity rates nearly doubled in July, and large public events along with the start of the school season may be driving further spread.
Texas is also seeing a sharp climb in cases. In Bexar County alone, reported clinic cases jumped from 43 in late June to over 200 in recent weeks. Statewide emergency room visits have risen by more than 20 percent, and hospital admissions are also up significantly.
Other states with high growth rates include Florida, Massachusetts, and Maryland. These states have some of the highest estimated transmission rates in the country, indicating that the spread is likely to accelerate in the near term.
Why Certain States Are Hit Harder
Several factors are influencing why some states are reporting more cases than others.
First, timing plays a role. Variants often appear in certain regions before spreading nationwide. The West Coast, with its major transportation hubs and large urban populations, has historically seen early waves of new strains.
Second, climate and behavior matter. In hot summer months, people in states like California, Nevada, and Texas tend to spend more time indoors with air conditioning, which can increase the risk of airborne transmission.
Third, the return of large events and gatherings, including festivals and school reopenings, provides opportunities for rapid spread. These gatherings often bring together people from different areas, allowing the virus to travel more easily between regions.
Changing Vaccine Guidance and Its Impact
Recent changes in CDC vaccine recommendations may also play a role in rising case numbers. Some age groups, including healthy children and pregnant women, now have fewer official vaccination requirements than before. Access to updated booster shots is also more limited compared to earlier in the pandemic.
This could mean that certain populations are less protected against the newest variants. While vaccines still provide strong protection against severe illness, reduced uptake and fewer public vaccination campaigns may leave more people susceptible to infection.
Symptoms of the New Variants
Both Stratus and Nimbus cause symptoms that are broadly similar to those of earlier Omicron strains. Common signs include sore throat, cough, fever, congestion, and fatigue. Some people also report headaches and mild body aches.
While most infections remain mild, the risk of severe disease is still higher for older adults, people with weakened immune systems, and those with underlying health conditions. Even mild cases can disrupt work, school, and travel plans.
How to Protect Yourself and Others
The same preventive measures that have worked throughout the pandemic remain effective today. Staying home when feeling sick is one of the most important steps to prevent spreading the virus.
Wearing a well-fitted mask in crowded indoor spaces, especially in areas with high case numbers, can help reduce risk. Maintaining good ventilation by opening windows or using air purifiers can also limit the spread indoors.
Regular hand washing and avoiding close contact with people who are ill remain simple yet effective practices. If you are eligible for vaccination or a booster, speaking with a healthcare provider about the best timing can help ensure you have protection during periods of high transmission.
Summary of States Most Affected
Here is a quick overview of where the new COVID variant is hitting hardest as of summer 2025:
Western States
California, Alaska, Colorado, Nevada, and Utah are seeing the highest viral levels in wastewater testing. California’s rapid rise is tied to increased indoor gatherings and large public events.
Southern States
Louisiana and parts of the broader South are showing very high viral detection levels, suggesting the virus is circulating widely.
Texas
Significant increases in cases, emergency room visits, and hospital admissions are being reported, with Bexar County experiencing a particularly steep climb.
Other Hotspots
Florida, Massachusetts, and Maryland have some of the highest transmission rates in the country, making them areas to watch closely.
What to Expect in the Coming Weeks
With case numbers rising in 45 states, it is likely that the new variants will continue to spread through late summer. Schools reopening in August and September could further drive infections, especially in states already experiencing high transmission levels.
However, public health experts note that high levels of immunity from past infections and vaccinations may help limit the severity of cases for many people. This means that while the number of infections may climb, the proportion of severe outcomes could remain relatively low compared to earlier waves.
Staying Informed Without Panic
The rise in new COVID variant cases by US state is a reminder that the virus continues to evolve. Staying informed through reliable health updates can help individuals make better decisions without unnecessary panic.
Monitoring local case levels, practicing preventive measures, and being mindful of symptoms are practical steps for navigating this stage of the pandemic. While new variants bring challenges, communities now have more tools and knowledge than they did in the early days of COVID-19.
Conclusion
The summer 2025 rise in new COVID variant cases by US state shows a pattern of spread led by the West Coast and parts of the South, with other regions quickly catching up. Factors like variant transmissibility, indoor gatherings, school reopenings, and shifting vaccine guidance all play a role.
Staying cautious, informed, and proactive can help reduce the impact of these new variants, keeping communities safer as the situation continues to develop.
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