The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) dropped its 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 22, and the news is anything but calm. Forecasters are predicting an above-average season, with 13 to 19 named storms expected to churn through the Atlantic from June 1 to November 30. Of those, six to ten could strengthen into hurricanes, and three to five might reach major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher, with winds of at least 111 mph). With a 60% chance of an above-normal season, it’s time for coastal communities—and even those far inland—to start preparing. Here’s what you need to know about what’s coming and why it matters.
NOAA’s forecast paints a picture of a busy Atlantic hurricane season, driven by a perfect storm of environmental factors. The agency’s experts, led by National Weather Service Director Ken Graham, point to warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, low wind shear, and a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase as key ingredients fueling this year’s outlook. These conditions create a fertile breeding ground for tropical storms, especially in the Atlantic basin, where hurricanes are born.
An average hurricane season, based on data from 1991 to 2020, typically sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. This year’s prediction of up to 19 named storms suggests the Atlantic could be busier than usual, though likely not as intense as the chaotic 2024 season, which saw 18 named storms and five major hurricanes. Still, NOAA’s 70% confidence in their forecast range signals that Americans should take this warning seriously.
Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead hurricane forecaster, emphasized the potential for significant storms, noting that “six major hurricanes would be an incredible amount.” While the agency doesn’t predict specific landfalls, the forecast suggests a heightened risk for coastal states, particularly along the Gulf Coast and East Coast, where warm waters and favorable conditions could amplify storm intensity.
So, what’s making the Atlantic so ready to unleash hurricanes? It starts with the ocean itself. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, especially in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, are running 2 to 5 degrees above average. Hurricanes thrive on warm water—needing at least 79°F to form—and much of the Gulf was already above that threshold by late May 2025. These warm waters act like jet fuel, giving storms the energy to grow stronger and faster.
Another factor is the absence of El Niño, which typically creates strong upper-level winds that can tear hurricanes apart. This year, forecasters expect ENSO-neutral conditions, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña will dominate. Without those disruptive winds, storms have an easier time forming and intensifying. Add to that the potential for an active West African Monsoon—where many Atlantic hurricanes originate—and you’ve got a recipe for a turbulent season.
For Americans, especially those in hurricane-prone states like Florida, Texas, Louisiana, and the Carolinas, NOAA’s forecast is a call to action. The 2025 season could bring storms that threaten lives, property, and infrastructure, even far inland. Last year’s hurricanes, like Helene and Milton, showed how devastating impacts can extend beyond the coast, with flooding and wind damage reaching deep into the Southeast and beyond.
Cynthia Lee-Sheng, President of Jefferson Parish, Louisiana, where NOAA announced the forecast, urged residents to prepare early. “The best way to thrive during a disaster is by making critical decisions beforehand,” she said. That means stocking up on supplies, creating evacuation plans, and staying informed about weather updates. With the season kicking off in just over a week, now’s the time to get ready.
NOAA’s Acting Administrator Laura Grimm also highlighted the agency’s success in 2024, when their predictions were “right on the money.” This track record boosts confidence in the 2025 forecast, but it comes with a sobering reminder: It only takes one storm to change lives. Whether it’s a single Category 5 monster or a series of smaller storms, the potential for destruction is real.
So, how can you prepare for what might be coming? First, don’t let the forecast lull you into complacency. Even if the season doesn’t hit the high end of NOAA’s predictions, a single landfalling hurricane can cause catastrophic damage. Here are some practical steps to take:
For coastal residents, storm surge—a wall of water pushed ashore by hurricane winds—remains a major threat. NOAA’s enhanced storm surge forecasts for 2025 will cover the entire Atlantic and Gulf coasts, giving communities better tools to prepare.
This year’s outlook comes with added complexity. NOAA and the National Weather Service have faced significant staffing cuts in 2025, with over 550 employees leaving due to layoffs and retirements prompted by the Trump administration’s Department of Governmental Efficiency. Some local weather stations are understaffed, raising concerns about forecasting capabilities. However, Ken Graham insisted that the National Hurricane Center is fully staffed and equipped with “the best model we’ve ever had.” He dismissed worries about the cuts impacting forecasts, saying, “The answer is no.”
Still, some voices on social media have expressed unease about the timing of these cuts, especially with a potentially busy season on the horizon. The loss of experienced meteorologists could strain local offices, which play a critical role in issuing timely warnings.
As the June 1 start date approaches, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up to be a challenging one. NOAA’s forecast aligns with other predictions, like Colorado State University’s April outlook, which called for 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. While these numbers are slightly higher than NOAA’s, the consensus is clear: The Atlantic is primed for action.
The season’s first named storms—Andrea, Barry, and Chantal—are already on the horizon, and forecasters warn that activity could ramp up in the second half of the season, particularly from mid-August to mid-October. The Gulf of Mexico, with its steamy waters, is a hotspot for early-season storms, putting states like Texas and Florida at higher risk in June and July.
For now, no storms are brewing in the immediate forecast, but that could change quickly. The National Hurricane Center is already issuing daily tropical weather outlooks, and NOAA’s new tools, like drones and underwater gliders, will help fill data gaps to improve forecast accuracy.
Hurricanes aren’t just numbers on a forecast—they’re life-changing events. The 2024 season left scars across the U.S., from Florida’s battered coastlines to the inland flooding that devastated communities. As we mark the 20-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, the stakes feel higher than ever. NOAA’s message is clear: Don’t wait for the first storm to form. Start preparing now, because when the Atlantic starts spewing hurricanes, it’s better to be ready than to be caught off guard.
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