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Show Huge Rise in U.S. Crude EIA Report

Oil pump jack is seen in front of displayed U.S. flag in this illustration taken, October 8, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

New York, May 1, 2025 — Energy experts at Macquarie Group are predicting a significant rise in U.S. crude oil inventories in the upcoming Energy Information Administration (EIA) report. According to Macquarie strategists, market trends, import patterns, and refinery operations point to a “healthy build” in crude oil stockpiles, which could have major implications for oil prices, energy stocks, and global market stability.

This expected surge in crude inventories comes at a time when oil prices have been fluctuating due to global economic uncertainty, changes in OPEC+ production levels, and geopolitical tensions.

What is the EIA Report?

The EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report is one of the most closely watched data sets in the oil and gas industry. Released every Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the report provides updates on:

U.S. crude oil inventories
Gasoline and distillate stock levels
Refinery utilization rates
Import and export data

This report helps investors, traders, and policymakers understand oil supply and demand trends in the U.S., the world’s largest oil consumer.

Why a ‘Healthy Build’ Matters

A “build” in crude oil means an increase in stored oil compared to the previous week. A healthy build, as mentioned by Macquarie, suggests not just a small uptick, but a notable and potentially market-moving increase in inventory levels.

Macquarie strategists stated in a recent client note, “We expect a solid crude build, likely in the range of 3–5 million barrels for the week ending April 26.”

This estimate is based on observed import flows, lower refinery activity, and seasonal factors. If true, this would mark one of the largest builds in recent weeks, indicating weaker refinery demand or increased imports.

Factors Behind the Crude Build

Several key drivers are behind the projected inventory rise:

1. Lower Refinery Runs

Refineries across the U.S. are entering maintenance season, particularly in the Midwest and Gulf Coast regions. This means less crude is being processed into gasoline and diesel, which leads to more oil being stored.

“Maintenance activities are limiting crude throughput, especially in key refining hubs,” Macquarie said.

2. Rising Imports

Data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection and marine traffic platforms suggest a jump in crude imports, especially from Canada and Latin America. Higher imports naturally add to the total supply stored in tanks.

3. Sluggish Demand for Fuel

Despite warmer spring weather, gasoline demand has been slightly below seasonal norms. Many experts attribute this to inflation and high prices at the pump, leading Americans to drive less or carpool more.

The EIA’s previous report showed U.S. gasoline demand at 8.6 million barrels per day, compared to a five-year average of 9.1 million. Lower fuel consumption means less crude being converted into refined products, allowing inventories to rise.

Market Reactions: Oil Prices Under Pressure

Anticipation of a large crude build is already weighing on global oil markets. WTI crude futures dropped 1.2% on Tuesday to trade around $81 per barrel, while Brent crude held just above $86.

Traders are concerned that a significant increase in supply, especially in the U.S., could offset efforts by OPEC+ to stabilize prices through voluntary production cuts.

Read more about OPEC+ oil output agreements.

“Inventory builds signal oversupply,” said a senior analyst at Energy Aspects. “Unless demand picks up or OPEC+ deepens its cuts, we could see price softness in the near term.”

Impact on Energy Stocks

U.S. energy companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Occidental Petroleum may face short-term stock volatility. While long-term outlooks remain stable due to strong dividends and global demand, near-term crude builds can lead to lower revenues and weaker profit margins.

Investors should also keep an eye on the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas ETF (XOP) and United States Oil Fund (USO), which track energy stocks and oil prices respectively.

Learn more about these ETFs on Yahoo Finance.

What’s Next?

The EIA’s official report is due at 10:30 AM ET on Wednesday, May 1, 2025. If Macquarie’s forecast proves accurate, traders can expect continued downward pressure on prices and market volatility in energy sectors.

However, it’s important to note that unexpected factors—such as export surges, domestic production cuts, or weather-related disruptions—could alter the final numbers.

“While our models show a clear build, short-term volatility remains due to real-time shipping and weather data,” said a Macquarie representative.

Expert Advice for Investors

Experts recommend caution and diversification. Those with heavy oil exposure should consider hedging strategies or reducing short-term positions. Long-term investors, however, may see this as a buying opportunity if oil prices dip but global demand remains intact.

“With global travel increasing and economies slowly recovering, demand could rebound in Q3,” said a commodities strategist from JP Morgan. “This could reverse some of the current bearish trends.”

Final Thoughts

A healthy U.S. crude build, as forecasted by Macquarie, is more than just a number—it is a reflection of changing market dynamics. From refining schedules to consumer behavior, and from global trade patterns to domestic policies, every barrel counts.

As the EIA prepares to release its next report, investors and analysts alike are watching closely. Will the data confirm the prediction? Will prices dip further? Or will unforeseen factors change the narrative?

Stay tuned.