Swiss watch exports July showed a surprising rise just before new tariffs from the United States took effect. This growth brought cautious optimism to the luxury watch industry, though many analysts warn it may be a temporary boost rather than a long-term trend.
Exports of Swiss watches increased by nearly 7 percent year over year in July. This positive outcome was mainly driven by shipments to the United States, where buyers rushed to stock up ahead of steep tariffs. Without this front-loading, exports would have actually shown a slight decline.
This highlights both resilience and vulnerability. On the one hand, Swiss brands demonstrated their ability to move quickly and respond to global trade challenges. On the other, the overall health of the industry remains uncertain, with major markets like Asia showing signs of weakness.
The biggest reason for July’s rise was early shipments to the United States. Brands and distributors knew tariffs were about to jump to 39 percent in August. To protect margins and maintain stock, they ordered heavily in July. This short-term strategy created a surge in exports.
While the U.S. market provided a temporary lifeline, other regions told a different story. Exports to Japan fell, while shipments to China and Hong Kong continued to weaken. This split shows that Swiss watchmakers are increasingly dependent on the American market during this turbulent period.
High-end watches priced above 3,000 Swiss francs performed the strongest, recording growth above 9 percent. Mid-range watches between 200 and 500 francs also gained ground. Entry-level models under 200 francs, however, saw a decline. The luxury segment continues to show resilience compared to the lower end of the market.
Many brands built inventory buffers in the United States by shipping extra stock in advance. These reserves are expected to support sales for a few months, softening the immediate impact of the tariffs.
With the new tariff level, Swiss watches are set to become more expensive in the U.S. Many companies already passed on earlier tariff costs to customers, and further price hikes are now inevitable. Estimates suggest that retail prices could rise by 10 to 15 percent on popular luxury models.
If brands absorb some of the tariff costs instead of fully passing them on, profit margins will come under heavy strain. This is especially challenging for mid-sized watchmakers that do not have the same pricing power as giants like Rolex or Patek Philippe.
The pre-owned watch market is growing rapidly and now accounts for nearly one-third of global watch sales. As new watches become more expensive due to tariffs, many American buyers may turn to certified pre-owned platforms. This puts further pressure on new sales, but it also highlights how customer preferences are shifting.
The United States is one of the most important destinations for Swiss watches, representing nearly 17 percent of total exports in 2024. This reliance makes the industry highly sensitive to U.S. trade policy changes.
The strength of the Swiss franc has made exports more expensive in global markets. While it reflects Switzerland’s economic stability, it reduces competitiveness abroad and adds another layer of difficulty.
China, once the fastest-growing market for luxury watches, has been slowing down. Economic pressures and changing consumer habits are reducing demand. Combined with weaker performance in Japan and other parts of Asia, this leaves Swiss watchmakers with fewer growth engines outside the U.S.
Swiss “Made in Switzerland” rules require that most of the value of a watch comes from domestic production. While this ensures high quality and brand reputation, it also limits cost-cutting options that could help offset tariffs.
For the rest of the year, Swiss watchmakers will rely heavily on the stock already shipped to the United States. Prices are expected to rise in retail stores, especially for premium models. The secondary market will likely keep growing as consumers look for better value.
Brands may respond by strengthening digital sales channels and targeting new markets such as India or Southeast Asia. Direct-to-consumer models could also help reduce dependency on traditional retail and improve pricing flexibility.
At the same time, Swiss trade officials are working to negotiate with the U.S. in hopes of reducing tariffs. The industry is lobbying for a rate closer to 15 percent, which would be more manageable. However, progress in trade negotiations is uncertain.
In the long run, the Swiss watch industry must diversify beyond its traditional strongholds. Asia and the Middle East remain important opportunities if economic conditions improve. At the same time, embracing e-commerce, expanding after-sales services, and engaging with younger buyers will be key to long-term sustainability.
Swiss watch exports July reflect both the strengths and weaknesses of the industry. The increase in exports before tariffs shows how well the sector can adapt to short-term challenges. But underneath the temporary boost lies a more fragile picture, with Asia slowing, the Swiss franc rising, and tariffs in the United States threatening growth.
The next few months will test the resilience of watchmakers. Their ability to adjust pricing, manage supply chains, and explore new markets will determine whether they can keep ticking smoothly in the face of global economic and political headwinds.
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