Former President Donald Trump’s approval rating drops once again, according to a new national poll, as more Americans voice strong disapproval of his immigration policies. This shift in public opinion comes at a critical time as the 2024 presidential election draws nearer and the debate over immigration intensifies across the country.
The poll, conducted by the independent research firm American Public Opinion Survey Group (APOSG), reveals a notable decline in Trump’s support base, especially among moderate and independent voters. The survey also highlights increasing concerns over his tough stance on border control and migrant deportation policies.
This article takes a closer look at the numbers, explores why Trump’s approval rating is falling, examines public sentiment on immigration, and discusses what this could mean for the 2024 presidential race.
Poll Breakdown: What the Numbers Say
According to the APOSG poll conducted in early July 2025, Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 39%, a drop of 6 points from the previous month. Meanwhile, his disapproval rating rose to 56%, indicating a clear trend away from support.
Here’s a breakdown of the poll results:
- Approval Rating: 39%
- Disapproval Rating: 56%
- Undecided/Neutral: 5%
Among key demographics:
- Independents: Only 31% approve of Trump’s performance.
- Suburban voters: Approval dropped to 35%, down from 43% in June.
- Latino voters: 72% disapprove of his immigration policies.
- Young voters (18–34): Approval stands at just 26%.
Notably, only 21% of Americans said they “strongly approve” of Trump’s immigration stance, while 48% said they “strongly disapprove.”
Immigration Policies Driving Public Opposition
One of the major reasons for the decline in Trump’s approval rating is growing public opposition to his immigration policies. Over the past few months, Trump has doubled down on his hardline approach, promising mass deportations, tighter border security, and even reviving the controversial family separation policy.
However, these promises seem to be backfiring with key voting groups, especially suburban women, young adults, and Latino communities.
Key immigration policies fueling backlash:
- Mass Deportation Plan: Trump has pledged to deport millions of undocumented immigrants if re-elected. Critics say this policy is not only unrealistic but also inhumane.
- Family Separation: There’s growing fear that Trump may reintroduce policies that separate children from their parents at the border.
- Asylum Restrictions: New proposals suggest limiting asylum claims, which has drawn backlash from human rights groups.
- National Guard at the Border: Trump has proposed using state forces to detain migrants, a move seen as extreme by many Americans.
Public Sentiment:
- 61% of Americans now say immigration should be handled with “compassion and fairness.”
- 58% believe deporting long-term undocumented immigrants who have families in the U.S. is “too harsh.”
- 65% of independents prefer a pathway to citizenship rather than deportation.
Expert Opinions: What Analysts Are Saying
Political experts believe the new poll signals deeper challenges for Trump, especially as voters grow tired of divisive rhetoric.
“The drop in Trump’s approval rating is closely tied to his aggressive immigration platform. Voters are more informed and less tolerant of cruelty-based policies,” said Maria Keller, a political analyst at the Brookings Institute.
“Suburban moms and independent voters are swinging away from Trump not just because of policy, but because of tone. Fear-based immigration messages aren’t working like they did in 2016,” added Dr. Roger Malik from the American Center for Public Opinion.
Even some Republican strategists have voiced concern.
“There’s a real risk that Trump’s immigration stance could cost him in swing states like Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia,” noted GOP consultant Thomas Reilly.
The 2024 Election Landscape
With the 2024 presidential election on the horizon, every poll matters. Trump remains the frontrunner in the Republican primaries, but the general election is where these approval ratings become crucial.
Key states where immigration is hurting Trump:
- Arizona: Latino voters are a large demographic here. Trump’s approval is just 32%.
- Georgia: Independent voters are shifting away; immigration is a top concern.
- Pennsylvania: Suburban disapproval of deportation plans is rising.
While Trump still holds strong support among his core base, that may not be enough to win a national election, especially when key swing voters are moving toward centrist alternatives or Democratic candidates.
Democratic Response and Strategy
Democrats are capitalizing on the growing disapproval. President Joe Biden and other Democratic leaders have criticized Trump’s immigration rhetoric as “divisive” and “out of step with American values.”
The Biden campaign has also ramped up efforts to highlight stories of immigrant families and Dreamers, pushing for reform over punishment.
A spokesperson from the Biden campaign said:
“Donald Trump’s approval rating drops for a reason. Americans want smart border solutions, not cruelty and chaos. Voters are paying attention.”
How the Media and Public Voices Are Reacting
Social media has seen a wave of commentary following the release of the poll. Hashtags like #StopTheHate and #CompassionForImmigrants have been trending on X (formerly Twitter), with many users expressing outrage at Trump’s recent comments about “rounding up” undocumented immigrants.
On TikTok, influencers and activists have been sharing videos explaining the human cost of deportation policies. These short, emotional clips have racked up millions of views and appear to be shaping younger voters’ opinions.
Major news outlets including CNN, MSNBC, and even Fox News have covered the poll extensively, often highlighting the sharp shift among independents.
Trump’s Response to the Poll
In typical fashion, Donald Trump dismissed the poll results, calling them “fake” and claiming his base is “more energized than ever.” In a statement posted on Truth Social, Trump wrote:
“The Radical Left and their fake polls won’t stop the movement. We’re taking our country back in 2024, and nothing can stop that!”
Despite this public defiance, sources close to the Trump campaign admit they are concerned about losing moderate voters, especially in swing districts.
Could This Be a Turning Point?
While it’s too early to predict the full impact of these poll results, one thing is clear: Trump’s immigration policies are increasingly unpopular, and his approval rating is suffering as a result. If the trend continues, it could reshape the 2024 election in significant ways.
Possible outcomes:
- Trump may tone down his immigration rhetoric to regain support.
- GOP rivals might exploit this weakness in debates or ads.
- Democrats could use this as a centerpiece of their campaign strategy.
Conclusion
The latest poll confirming that Trump approval rating drops is a wake-up call for the former president’s campaign. With more Americans opposing his immigration policies and voicing concerns over harsh enforcement tactics, Trump faces an uphill battle to win back moderates and independents.
Whether this decline in support is a short-term dip or part of a larger trend remains to be seen. But one thing is certain—immigration is no longer a guaranteed winning issue for Donald Trump. In fact, it might be the very thing that costs him the presidency in 2024.
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